New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
MLB · Monday, July 27, 2026 · 8:00 PM · Final: 9-5
The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Result New York Yankees won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -145 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -141 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -144 | +119 |
| ESPN BET | -140 | +120 |
| Fanatics | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -146 | +124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +130 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 58.3% | 43.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Markets average | 56.5% | 43.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.