Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
MLB · Monday, July 27, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 7-8
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 64.3%
Books consensus 64.3%
Result Miami Marlins won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -200 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -190 | +165 |
| DraftKings | -205 | +167 |
| ESPN BET | -200 | +170 |
| Fanatics | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -205 | +172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -200 | +165 |
| Caesars | -215 | +178 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 65.5% | 36.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Markets average | 64.5% | 35.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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