SUNDAY, JULY 26, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
MLB · Monday, July 27, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 60.1%
Books consensus 60.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | -167 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -175 | +144 |
| ESPN BET | -165 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -164 | +138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +140 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 62.1% | 41.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Markets average | 61.0% | 39.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.