Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 8-7
The model's call
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Model confidence 50.8%
Books consensus 50.8%
Result Arizona Diamondbacks won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | +100 | -113 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.0% | 52.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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