Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 8-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | +100 | -113 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -200 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -182 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -180 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -192 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -118 | 9 -102 |
| BetRivers | 9 -113 | 9 -107 |
| DraftKings | 9 -119 | 9 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
| FanDuel | 9 -120 | 9 -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.0% | 52.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.