MONDAY, JULY 27, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 56.8%
Books consensus 56.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.4% | 58.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.