Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 0-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| BetRivers | +115 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +114 | -137 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +170 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -191 | −1.5 +157 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -192 | −1.5 +158 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8 -108 | 8 -110 |
| DraftKings | 8 -108 | 8 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.3% | 56.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Markets average | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.