Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 7:50 PM · Final: 6-8
The model's call
Washington Nationals to win
Model confidence 56.3%
Books consensus 56.3%
Result Washington Nationals won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Toronto Blue Jays | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +120 | -137 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -144 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -140 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Toronto Blue Jays | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.5% | 57.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.5% | 56.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.5% | 56.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.