MONDAY, JULY 27, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| BetRivers | +148 | -177 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| ESPN BET | +150 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.0% | 63.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Markets average | 39.0% | 60.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.