Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 7-6
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 67.3%
Books consensus 67.3%
Result Seattle Mariners won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +190 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +200 | -235 |
| DraftKings | +193 | -238 |
| ESPN BET | +195 | -230 |
| Fanatics | +190 | -235 |
| FanDuel | +188 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +195 | -240 |
| Caesars | +210 | -260 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 32.7% | 67.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 32.3% | 69.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Markets average | 32.0% | 68.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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