Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 12:36 PM · Final: 3-0
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +117 | -134 |
| DraftKings | +118 | -143 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -172 | −1.5 +142 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +143 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -102 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -113 | 8.5 -107 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -119 | 8.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.5% | 57.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 44.0% | 56.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.