TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 1:11 PM
The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 60.2%
Books consensus 60.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +145 | -175 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.0% | 62.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.