TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 12:11 PM
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 59.9%
Books consensus 59.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | -165 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 61.8% | 41.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Markets average | 59.5% | 40.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.