Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 12:11 PM · Final: 6-8
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -175 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -175 | +150 |
| DraftKings | -175 | +144 |
| ESPN BET | -170 | +145 |
| Fanatics | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -172 | +144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -175 | +145 |
| Caesars | -170 | +143 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +102 | +1.5 -122 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -114 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +102 | +1.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -108 | 7.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 7 -123 | 7 +102 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 63.0% | 40.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Markets average | 60.7% | 39.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.