Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 0-3

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 56.9%
Books consensus 56.9%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +117 -134
DraftKings +119 -144
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +122 -144
Hard Rock Bet +115 -145
Caesars +130 -155

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.1% 56.9%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 57.3%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Polymarket contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Markets average 43.0% 57.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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