TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 7:46 PM
The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 50.9%
Books consensus 50.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 52.4% | 51.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Markets average | 52.2% | 47.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.