Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Seattle Mariners predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 62.2%
Books consensus 62.2%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +150 -185
BetRivers +160 -182
DraftKings +153 -186
ESPN BET +150 -175
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +154 -184
Hard Rock Bet +140 -170
Caesars +158 -190

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.8% 62.2%
Best book price incl. vig 38.5% 63.0%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Polymarket contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Markets average 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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