Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

All Houston Astros predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 9:39 PM · Final: 7-4

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 54.7%
Books consensus 54.7%
Result Houston Astros won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -129 +114
DraftKings -126 +105
ESPN BET -135 +115
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -134 +114
Hard Rock Bet -135 +115
Caesars -130 +110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.7% 45.3%
Best book price incl. vig 55.8% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 54.9% 45.1%
Polymarket contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Markets average 55.2% 44.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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