Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

All Atlanta Braves predictions · All New York Mets predictions

MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result New York Mets won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Atlanta BravesNew York Mets
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -110 -104
DraftKings -114 -105
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -112 -104
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Caesars -115 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Atlanta BravesNew York Mets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 52.4% 51.0%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Polymarket contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Markets average 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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