TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 1:11 PM
The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 50.8%
Books consensus 50.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | -117 | -103 |
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 52.4% | 50.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Markets average | 51.5% | 48.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.