Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
All Atlanta Braves predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 1-0
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -185 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -175 | +150 |
| DraftKings | -184 | +151 |
| ESPN BET | -175 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -176 | +148 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -160 | +130 |
| Caesars | -178 | +150 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Braves | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 -102 | +1.5 -118 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -132 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -101 | +1.5 -119 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -120 | 7 +100 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 +102 | 7.5 -122 |
| DraftKings | 7 -122 | 7 +101 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 7 -120 | 7 +100 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 +102 | 7.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 7 -120 | 7 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 61.5% | 39.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Markets average | 8.3% | 91.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.