Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

All Atlanta Braves predictions · All New York Mets predictions

MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 1-0

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 61.4%
Books consensus 61.4%
Result Atlanta Braves won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Atlanta BravesNew York Mets
BetMGM -185 +150
BetRivers -175 +150
DraftKings -184 +151
ESPN BET -175 +150
Fanatics -175 +145
FanDuel -176 +148
Hard Rock Bet -160 +130
Caesars -178 +150

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Atlanta BravesNew York Mets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 61.4% 38.6%
Best book price incl. vig 61.5% 39.8%
Kalshi contract price 16.5% 83.5%
Polymarket contract price 0.0% 100.0%
Markets average 8.3% 91.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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