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Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 12:11 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 62.0%
Books consensus 62.0%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM +150 -185
BetRivers +155 -177
DraftKings +152 -185
ESPN BET +155 -185
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +154 -184
Hard Rock Bet +145 -175
Caesars +162 -195

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.0% 62.0%
Best book price incl. vig 38.2% 63.6%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 38.5% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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