New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
All New York Yankees predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 1-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | -103 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Yankees | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -215 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +163 | +1.5 -199 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -205 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +168 | +1.5 -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +180 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -101 | 7.5 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -102 | 7.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.0% | 52.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 48.5% | 51.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.