WEDNESDAY, JULY 29, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 2:16 PM
The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +110 |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -122 | +104 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 55.0% | 47.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Markets average | 53.0% | 47.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.