Miami Marlins at New York Mets
All Miami Marlins predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 8:16 PM · Final: 2-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +114 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +114 | -137 |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -235 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +170 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -216 | −1.5 +176 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +175 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +176 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +175 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| BetRivers | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| DraftKings | 7 -114 | 7 -106 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| FanDuel | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -140 |
| Caesars | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.7% | 55.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Markets average | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.