WEDNESDAY, JULY 29, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 7:11 PM
The model's call
New York Mets to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Miami Marlins | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.6% | 56.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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