Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Seattle Mariners predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 2-6

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 57.0%
Books consensus 57.0%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +120 -145
BetRivers +135 -155
DraftKings +120 -145
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +122 -144
Hard Rock Bet +130 -150
Caesars +122 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.0% 57.0%
Best book price incl. vig 42.6% 59.0%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Markets average 42.0% 58.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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