WEDNESDAY, JULY 29, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 7:16 PM
The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 56.6%
Books consensus 56.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -145 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.8% | 58.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Markets average | 43.2% | 56.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.