Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 4-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| BetRivers | +123 | -141 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +124 | -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -135 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +148 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -181 | −1.5 +149 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +150 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -102 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.4% | 57.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.5% | 56.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.