Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

All Chicago White Sox predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 6-1

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 56.0%
Books consensus 56.0%
Result Chicago White Sox won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago White SoxTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +114 -136
DraftKings +119 -143
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +118 -126
Hard Rock Bet +125 -135
Caesars +126 -150

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago White SoxTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.0% 56.0%
Best book price incl. vig 44.2% 55.8%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Polymarket contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Markets average 44.0% 56.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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