Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Miami Marlins at New York Mets

All Miami Marlins predictions · All New York Mets predictions

MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 5-2

The model's call
New York Mets to win
Model confidence 51.9%
Books consensus 51.9%
Result Miami Marlins won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Miami MarlinsNew York Mets
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers +100 -114
DraftKings -101 -120
ESPN BET -105 -115
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +104 -114
Hard Rock Bet +105 -115
Caesars -105 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Miami MarlinsNew York Mets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.1% 51.9%
Best book price incl. vig 48.8% 53.3%
Kalshi contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 47.5% 52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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