Miami Marlins at New York Mets
All Miami Marlins predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 5-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +100 | -114 |
| DraftKings | -101 | -120 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +104 | -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +160 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -200 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +161 | +1.5 -196 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -200 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +152 | +1.5 -184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -180 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -112 | 8.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -108 | 8.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -114 | 8.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 53.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.