Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 5-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +150 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +138 | -167 |
| ESPN BET | +145 | -170 |
| Fanatics | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +146 | -158 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +150 | -160 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Twins | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +123 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -157 | −1.5 +130 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -152 | −1.5 +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +135 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8 -103 | 8 -117 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -107 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.0% | 61.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.7% | 60.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.