THURSDAY, JULY 30, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 10:11 PM
The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 62.2%
Books consensus 62.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 38.8% | 64.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 37.0% | 63.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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