Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 5-3

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 60.6%
Books consensus 60.6%
Result Minnesota Twins won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TwinsSeattle Mariners
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +150 -175
DraftKings +138 -167
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +146 -158
Hard Rock Bet +150 -160
Caesars +143 -170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TwinsSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.4% 60.6%
Best book price incl. vig 40.0% 61.2%
Kalshi contract price 39.9% 60.1%
Polymarket contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Markets average 39.7% 60.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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