Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions
MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 3-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +145 | -165 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -171 |
| ESPN BET | +145 | -170 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +148 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +150 | -160 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Twins | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +1.5 -157 | −1.5 +128 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -156 | −1.5 +129 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -156 | −1.5 +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +135 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| BetRivers | 7 -125 | 7 +105 |
| DraftKings | 7 -117 | 7 -103 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.0% | 61.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.