Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians

All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 12-8

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 61.8%
Books consensus 61.8%
Result Arizona Diamondbacks won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Arizona DiamondbacksCleveland Guardians
BetMGM +150 -185
BetRivers +143 -165
DraftKings +152 -185
ESPN BET +150 -175
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +158 -172
Hard Rock Bet +160 -170
Caesars +150 -178

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Arizona DiamondbacksCleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.2% 61.8%
Best book price incl. vig 38.5% 62.3%
Kalshi contract price 38.1% 61.9%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 38.3% 61.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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