Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 12-8
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| BetRivers | +143 | -165 |
| DraftKings | +152 | -185 |
| ESPN BET | +150 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +158 | -172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +160 | -170 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +118 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -157 | −1.5 +128 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -143 | −1.5 +119 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -146 | −1.5 +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +130 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +118 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -120 | 8 +100 |
| BetRivers | 8 -118 | 8 -103 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -102 | 8.5 -118 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 38.5% | 62.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Markets average | 38.3% | 61.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.