Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 3-8

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 60.4%
Books consensus 60.4%
Result Atlanta Braves won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
BetMGM +140 -170
BetRivers +145 -165
DraftKings +141 -171
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +148 -160
Hard Rock Bet +150 -160
Caesars +143 -170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.6% 60.4%
Best book price incl. vig 40.0% 61.5%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Polymarket contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Markets average 39.0% 61.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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