Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 9:11 PM · Final: 3-2

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 62.7%
Books consensus 62.7%
Result Boston Red Sox won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston Red SoxLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +163 -186
DraftKings +157 -191
ESPN BET +155 -185
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +162 -174
Hard Rock Bet +165 -175
Caesars +162 -195

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston Red SoxLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.3% 62.7%
Best book price incl. vig 37.7% 63.5%
Kalshi contract price 37.1% 62.9%
Polymarket contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Markets average 37.3% 62.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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