Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 1:36 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Result Atlanta Braves won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +110 -124
DraftKings +104 -125
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +118 -126
Hard Rock Bet +115 -125
Caesars +110 -130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.7% 54.3%
Best book price incl. vig 45.9% 55.4%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.5% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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