Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

All Chicago White Sox predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 1:41 PM · Final: 9-1

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 57.2%
Books consensus 57.2%
Result Chicago White Sox won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago White SoxTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +125 -150
DraftKings +124 -150
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +126 -138
Hard Rock Bet +130 -140
Caesars +122 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago White SoxTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.8% 57.2%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 58.0%
Kalshi contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Polymarket contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Markets average 43.5% 56.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record