Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 6-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +122 | -147 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +124 | -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -135 |
| Caesars | +125 | -135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Twins | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +163 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -183 | −1.5 +151 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +160 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -194 | −1.5 +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +165 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| BetRivers | 7 -110 | 7 -109 |
| DraftKings | 7 -113 | 7 -107 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| FanDuel | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +120 |
| Caesars | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.4% | 56.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Markets average | 43.0% | 57.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.