Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 6-7

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 56.3%
Books consensus 56.3%
Result Seattle Mariners won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TwinsSeattle Mariners
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +116 -132
DraftKings +122 -147
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +124 -134
Hard Rock Bet +125 -135
Caesars +125 -135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TwinsSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.7% 56.3%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 56.9%
Kalshi contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Markets average 43.0% 57.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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