Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 7:21 PM · Final: 8-4

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 61.8%
Books consensus 61.8%
Result Boston Red Sox won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston Red SoxLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +145 -180
BetRivers +155 -180
DraftKings +149 -181
ESPN BET +155 -185
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +156 -168
Hard Rock Bet +160 -170
Caesars +157 -172

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston Red SoxLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.2% 61.8%
Best book price incl. vig 38.5% 62.7%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 38.0% 62.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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