Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Houston Astros predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 3-7

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 55.9%
Books consensus 55.9%
Result Houston Astros won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersHouston Astros
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +116 -132
DraftKings +118 -142
ESPN BET +120 -140
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +120 -130
Hard Rock Bet +120 -130
Caesars +122 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersHouston Astros
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.1% 55.9%
Best book price incl. vig 45.0% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record