Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Monday, August 3, 2026 · 7:06 PM · Final: 13-7

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 68.6%
Books consensus 68.6%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees
BetMGM +200 -250
BetRivers +215 -250
DraftKings +202 -250
ESPN BET +200 -240
Fanatics +200 -245
FanDuel +215 -235
Hard Rock Bet +220 -230
Caesars +215 -245

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 31.4% 68.6%
Best book price incl. vig 31.2% 69.7%
Kalshi contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Polymarket contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Markets average 31.5% 68.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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