Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Monday, August 3, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 57.6%
Books consensus 57.6%
Result Pittsburgh Pirates won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +123 -148
DraftKings +129 -156
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +134 -144
Hard Rock Bet +135 -145
Caesars +132 -142

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.4% 57.6%
Best book price incl. vig 42.6% 58.7%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Markets average 42.0% 58.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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