Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions
MLB · Monday, August 3, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 4-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +123 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| ESPN BET | +125 | -145 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +134 | -144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -145 |
| Caesars | +132 | -142 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -163 | −1.5 +135 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +145 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +140 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -127 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -103 | 8.5 -117 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -104 | 8.5 -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 42.6% | 58.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Markets average | 42.0% | 58.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.