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Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions

MLB · Monday, August 3, 2026 · 8:41 PM · Final: 13-9

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 62.3%
Books consensus 62.3%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysColorado Rockies
BetMGM -185 +150
BetRivers -190 +165
DraftKings -185 +152
ESPN BET -190 +160
Fanatics -180 +150
FanDuel -172 +158
Hard Rock Bet -175 +165
Caesars -177 +162

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 62.3% 37.7%
Best book price incl. vig 63.2% 37.7%
Kalshi contract price 62.5% 37.5%
Polymarket contract price 62.5% 37.5%
Markets average 62.5% 37.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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