Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions

MLB · Monday, August 3, 2026 · 8:06 PM · Final: 5-10

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 53.5%
Books consensus 53.5%
Result Chicago Cubs won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersChicago Cubs
BetMGM -125 +105
BetRivers -124 +110
DraftKings -125 +104
ESPN BET -125 +105
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -122 +112
Hard Rock Bet -125 +115
Caesars -122 +112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersChicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.5% 46.5%
Best book price incl. vig 55.0% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Polymarket contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Markets average 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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