SUNDAY, AUGUST 2, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
MLB · Monday, August 3, 2026 · 8:06 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 54.0%
Books consensus 54.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -122 | +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 54.5% | 47.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Markets average | 54.5% | 45.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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