Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 8:06 PM · Final: 1-5

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 63.9%
Books consensus 63.9%
Result Chicago Cubs won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersChicago Cubs
BetMGM -200 +165
BetRivers -205 +180
DraftKings -186 +174
ESPN BET -195 +165
Fanatics -195 +160
FanDuel -190 +176
Hard Rock Bet -185 +175
Caesars -183 +168

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersChicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.9% 36.0%
Best book price incl. vig 64.7% 35.7%
Kalshi contract price 64.1% 35.9%
Polymarket contract price 64.5% 35.5%
Markets average 64.3% 35.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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