Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 8:06 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 64.1%
Books consensus 64.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -200 | +165 |
| DraftKings | -199 | +163 |
| Fanatics | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -210 | +176 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -190 | +180 |
| Caesars | -200 | +170 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 65.5% | 35.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Markets average | 64.3% | 35.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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