Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 7:40 PM · Final: 2-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +117 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +132 | -141 |
| ESPN BET | +125 | -145 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +132 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -140 |
| Caesars | +130 | -140 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 43.1% | 58.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 42.5% | 57.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.