Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 7:40 PM · Final: 2-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +117 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +132 | -141 |
| ESPN BET | +125 | -145 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +132 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -140 |
| Caesars | +130 | -140 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +155 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +148 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +150 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -102 | 7.5 -118 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -134 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -106 | 7.5 -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 43.1% | 58.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 42.5% | 57.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.