Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox

All Chicago White Sox predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 2-14

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 57.9%
Books consensus 57.9%
Result Boston Red Sox won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago White SoxBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +120 -137
DraftKings +138 -147
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +134 -144
Hard Rock Bet +135 -145
Caesars +130 -140

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago White SoxBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.1% 57.9%
Best book price incl. vig 42.0% 57.8%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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