Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 6:36 PM · Final: 1-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +138 | -157 |
| DraftKings | +134 | -142 |
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +138 | -148 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -145 |
| Caesars | +133 | -143 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Angels | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| BetRivers | +1 -104 | −1 -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -167 | −1.5 +138 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +140 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -162 | −1.5 +134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +145 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +140 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 -102 | 9.5 -118 |
| BetRivers | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
| DraftKings | 9 -114 | 9 -106 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 42.0% | 58.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.