Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 6:36 PM · Final: 1-3

The model's call
Baltimore Orioles to win
Model confidence 57.9%
Books consensus 57.9%
Result Baltimore Orioles won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +138 -157
DraftKings +134 -142
ESPN BET +130 -150
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +138 -148
Hard Rock Bet +135 -145
Caesars +133 -143

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.1% 57.9%
Best book price incl. vig 42.0% 58.7%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.0% 59.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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