Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 7:06 PM · Final: 0-2

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 65.2%
Books consensus 65.2%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees
BetMGM +170 -210
BetRivers +175 -200
DraftKings +179 -192
ESPN BET +175 -210
Fanatics +175 -215
FanDuel +186 -205
Hard Rock Bet +190 -200
Caesars +183 -203

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.8% 65.2%
Best book price incl. vig 34.5% 65.8%
Kalshi contract price 34.5% 65.5%
Polymarket contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Markets average 35.0% 65.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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