Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners

All Detroit Tigers predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 8-0

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +112 -127
DraftKings +108 -115
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +110 -120
Hard Rock Bet +110 -120
Caesars +108 -119

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.8% 53.2%
Best book price incl. vig 47.2% 53.5%
Kalshi contract price 46.5% 53.5%
Polymarket contract price 46.5% 53.5%
Markets average 46.5% 53.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record