Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Houston Astros predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 2:10 PM · Final: 5-4

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 67.1%
Books consensus 67.1%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros
BetMGM +190 -235
BetRivers +200 -230
DraftKings +195 -208
ESPN BET +180 -215
Fanatics +190 -235
FanDuel +205 -225
Hard Rock Bet +210 -220
Caesars +199 -219

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 32.9% 67.1%
Best book price incl. vig 32.3% 67.5%
Kalshi contract price 32.5% 67.5%
Polymarket contract price 33.5% 66.5%
Markets average 33.0% 67.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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