Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
MLB · Saturday, July 4, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 3-1
The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 55.6%
Books consensus 55.6%
Result Chicago White Sox won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| BetRivers | +120 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -148 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -150 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |
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