Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 6:36 PM · Final: 2-5

The model's call
Baltimore Orioles to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Result Baltimore Orioles won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles
BetMGM +118 -150
BetRivers +114 -136
DraftKings +126 -134
ESPN BET +121 -136
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +122 -132
Hard Rock Bet +125 -135
Caesars +130 -140

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.6% 56.4%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 56.9%
Kalshi contract price 43.1% 56.9%
Polymarket contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Markets average 43.3% 56.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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