Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 8:15 PM · Final: 3-1

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 58.9%
Books consensus 58.9%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +140 -159
DraftKings +144 -153
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +140 -150
Hard Rock Bet +140 -150
Caesars +135 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.1% 58.9%
Best book price incl. vig 41.0% 59.2%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.0% 59.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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